It’s my favorite time of year: OSCAR TIME! And I have predictions!
Wanna hear ‘em? Here it goes:
BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Who Should Win: Though I don’t think any of these films are worthy of a Best Picture Oscar, I think the finest on this list is surely Slumdog. The film is ridiculously unrealistic, but therein lies its charm: it is, after all, a modern day fairy tale. The two best films of last year, Rachel Getting Married and Revolutionary Road, were, sadly, not nominated.
Dark Horse: Milk. I found the script wildly uneven, but Gus Van Sant’s direction was inspired and the performances were nothing short of miraculous. I could see this winning for two reasons: A) the snubbing of another Big Gay Movie, 2005’s brilliant Brokeback Mountain (did Crash REALLY deserve a Best Picture Oscar?), may have given some Academy members a guilty conscience; and B) in the aftermath of Prop 8, Hollywood wants to show its support for 'da gays.
BEST DIRECTOR NOMINEES
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Who Will Win: Boyle.
Who Should Win: Boyle. Again, because Slumdog is the best of this lot.
Dark Horse: Van Sant. For explanation, see my above reasoning as to why Milk is a dark horse for the Best Picture award.
BEST ACTOR NOMINEES
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Who Will Win: Too close to call. Penn and Rourke are neck and neck.
Who Should Win: Mickey Rourke. Never in my life would I have thought Mickey Rourke deserved an Oscar over Sean Penn, but, alas, this year is an exception. Both were brilliant in their respective films, and I’d be happy with either of them nabbing the statuette. And Penn’s performance was studied, brave, and fiery. But when it comes to plunging the depths of human emotion, Rourke has all these guys beat. He takes his larger-than-life character – former pro wrestler Randy “The Ram” – and subtly, honestly makes him someone with whom we can all relate. It’s one of the best performances I’ve seen in recent years.
Dark Horse: There isn’t one. This is between Penn and Rourke to the bloody end.
BEST ACTRESS NOMINEES
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Who Will Win: Winslet. She deserved a nomination for Revolutionary Road, but winning for The Reader is a pretty good consolation prize. Plus, she’s one of our greatest younger actresses and has been nominated five times previously. She deserves the award more for her body of work and less for this singled-out performance.
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway. Her performance in the astounding Rachel Getting Married was pitch-perfect. As a just-out-of-rehab black sheep in her upper middle class suburban family, Hathaway is a raw nerve of energy, an open wound exposed to the air for the first time in ages. I adore all these performances, and Streep and Winslet have always been favorites of mine, but no one here can touch what Hathaway did in Rachel.
Dark Horse: Meryl Streep. Never, ever count Meryl out of the running for any award. When it comes to actresses, there has never been a greater one than Streep.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR NOMINEES
Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Who Will Win: Ledger.
Who Should Win: Ledger. If for no other reason than to give him the award he deserved to win for Brokeback.
Dark Horse: Brolin. With his roles as Dan White in Milk and what’s-his-name in W., this year showed the acting chops of this talented thespian.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMINEES
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Who Will Win: Cruz. With Winslet’s supporting turn in The Reader inexplicably up for the leading category award, Cruz stands the best chance of winning. She’s also won a slew of critics’ prizes for this performance. And again, two of the year’s most incredible supporting performances were from Rachel Getting Married: Rosemarie DeWitt and the great Debra Winger, but they were both criminally overlooked.
Who Should Win: Viola Davis. Even had DeWitt and Winger been nominated, there still wouldn’t be a contest in my mind. Davis deserves this award, hands down. In an all-too-short, explosive scene, she walks away with the entire film—not easy to do when you’re playing opposite Meryl Streep. Davis’s work in Doubt is one of the greatest supporting performances I’ve ever seen. Vulnerable, fearless, emotionally naked, and ferocious, this is a legendary performance.
Dark Horse: Amy Adams. Though I don’t think she merits an Oscar for her work in Doubt, Adams is an amazingly talented, intensely likeable actress. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Academy noticed that by giving her the statuette.
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Who Will Win: Too close to call. Penn and Rourke are neck and neck.
Who Should Win: Mickey Rourke. Never in my life would I have thought Mickey Rourke deserved an Oscar over Sean Penn, but, alas, this year is an exception. Both were brilliant in their respective films, and I’d be happy with either of them nabbing the statuette. And Penn’s performance was studied, brave, and fiery. But when it comes to plunging the depths of human emotion, Rourke has all these guys beat. He takes his larger-than-life character – former pro wrestler Randy “The Ram” – and subtly, honestly makes him someone with whom we can all relate. It’s one of the best performances I’ve seen in recent years.
Dark Horse: There isn’t one. This is between Penn and Rourke to the bloody end.
BEST ACTRESS NOMINEES
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Who Will Win: Winslet. She deserved a nomination for Revolutionary Road, but winning for The Reader is a pretty good consolation prize. Plus, she’s one of our greatest younger actresses and has been nominated five times previously. She deserves the award more for her body of work and less for this singled-out performance.
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway. Her performance in the astounding Rachel Getting Married was pitch-perfect. As a just-out-of-rehab black sheep in her upper middle class suburban family, Hathaway is a raw nerve of energy, an open wound exposed to the air for the first time in ages. I adore all these performances, and Streep and Winslet have always been favorites of mine, but no one here can touch what Hathaway did in Rachel.
Dark Horse: Meryl Streep. Never, ever count Meryl out of the running for any award. When it comes to actresses, there has never been a greater one than Streep.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR NOMINEES
Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Who Will Win: Ledger.
Who Should Win: Ledger. If for no other reason than to give him the award he deserved to win for Brokeback.
Dark Horse: Brolin. With his roles as Dan White in Milk and what’s-his-name in W., this year showed the acting chops of this talented thespian.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMINEES
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Who Will Win: Cruz. With Winslet’s supporting turn in The Reader inexplicably up for the leading category award, Cruz stands the best chance of winning. She’s also won a slew of critics’ prizes for this performance. And again, two of the year’s most incredible supporting performances were from Rachel Getting Married: Rosemarie DeWitt and the great Debra Winger, but they were both criminally overlooked.
Who Should Win: Viola Davis. Even had DeWitt and Winger been nominated, there still wouldn’t be a contest in my mind. Davis deserves this award, hands down. In an all-too-short, explosive scene, she walks away with the entire film—not easy to do when you’re playing opposite Meryl Streep. Davis’s work in Doubt is one of the greatest supporting performances I’ve ever seen. Vulnerable, fearless, emotionally naked, and ferocious, this is a legendary performance.
Dark Horse: Amy Adams. Though I don’t think she merits an Oscar for her work in Doubt, Adams is an amazingly talented, intensely likeable actress. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Academy noticed that by giving her the statuette.
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